Ryan McCorvie

Joined a working group formalizing stochastic calculus, specifically Itô's lemma, in Lean, the interactive theorem prover. Also joined a weekly Lean meetup in San Francisco which is open to all. Occassionally Lean-stream on twitch

Vibecoded a clone of the LinkedIn geometric deduction puzzle game Queens, including a level editor. This version lets you play the full history, and randomizes boards for replayability. Play →

Analyzed TSMC AI chip production capacity as a consultant for Epoch AI. Used TSMC and ASML financial statements and fab construction timelines. Read →

Introducing Elo on the Dohyo. I applied Elo ratings to sumo wrestling to see how they compare with official banzuke rankings and tournament results. Includes match-by-match forecasts and historical analysis. Read → Forecasts → Code →

CalCAT paper published in Frontiers in Public Health. Describes the technical and organizational design of California's long-running COVID forecast aggregation dashboard, which I helped build and maintain. Read → Dashboard →

Profile of me and my statistical consulting work. Read →

Co-authored analysis of risk tradeoffs in COVID testing policy for schools, done with colleagues at the CA Dept of Public Health and UCSF, published in IJERPH. Paper →

Co-authored analysis of racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 exposure, testing, and case rates in California, with colleagues at CDPH and Stanford. Published in Health Affairs. Paper →

Solutions to problem sets from graduate probability courses, including David Williams' Probability with Martingales and Terence Tao's Math 275A. These get a surprising amount of traffic from probability students. Browse →